The approach you take will depend on your risk tolerance as there are benefits and drawbacks to both options. Here are the key considerations:
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Let's have a look at the tokenomic (fig 1), before Nov 2023, there are 4 parties who hold $SUI, they are Community (RED), Sui Foundation (PURPLE), Market Maker (BLACK), and Binance Launchpool (Yellow). The issue here is allocation of Market Maker is too high, if we combine MM and SUI Foundation, their token allocation is 53.4% so they can easily cooperate to enable price manipulation.
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In May 2023, the circulation token (excluding MM and SUI foundation) is around 270m $SUI, the price of $SUI now is 1.12 USD so the circulation cap shall be equivalent to 302m USD. Compared to the similar project APT, the circulation token is 191m at a price of 8.32 USD each so the circulation cap shall be equivalent to 1,589m USD, 5 times higher than SUI. Even until Nov 2023, the circulation token is 400m only if the price remains at 1.12 USD, the total circulation cap is 448m USD. It is quite small for a project like Sui so $SUI has room to grow if demand increases.
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From Nov 2023 onward, a large amount of $SUI becomes unlocked which could lead to high sell pressure and impact the price.
So if you are an investor who believes in the project fundamentals, you could split your investment such as: initially allocating 30% DCA from May to November 2023, then the remaining 70% DCA from December 2023 or January 2024 onwards once the impact of the unlock has stabilized the price.
If you are more of a speculator, the period from May to November 2023 could offer an opportunity to buy at lower prices and sell once the unlock has been priced in.
Hope this summary helps frame the options available based on your investment goals and risk tolerance. Let me know if you have any other comments. Show Less
