So yesterday was the BIG $1 MILLION dollar buy event, and there was no shortage of FUD around if they would or would not do it.
It kicked off late and were buying in $20K and then $50K batches and the price was still dropping, so the volume on the FUD became louder and louder.
I joined the live chat they opened in Telegram and after chatting for 5 or 10 minutes about what was going on on-chain, I decide to just mute myself. I was getting lots of DMs, which were all friendly, but so many people asking for more info was overwhelming. I even got DMs from what I imagine is a few Cyrator Analyst who were asking questions and expressing concerns.
Let me just lay out some facts, some of the comments I heard, and a few of my opinions (no order)
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If this was a Rug or a Slow Rug it is the oddest Rug I have seen to date in the space.
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If there was sell the news planned it did happen. MC dropped from 11M-12M to 8M before the 1M buy, and then to 6M, 5M, and leveled at 4M during. There were 2M- to 3M spikes for a second, but overall it was overwhelming sell pressure.
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If this was some elaborate plan to scam people then CatDog would need to make up for almost $440K before just breaking even. The $1 million they spent in USDT/SOL to buy 13.13B $CATDOG is only worth $560K right now and was worth less last night in the flow.
There was no real opportunity to spend $50K Buying CatDog and then Sell it from some other wallets anywhere and get back more than 70% on the dollar.
- Many were following @dethective who posted “Why the $CATDOG $1M Buyback is NOT Bullish (and You’re Being Scammed Again)” link: https://x.com/dethective/status/1827002451041345685
I’m following this guy and I think he is honestly a force for good in the space, but I don’t think he really framed everything as I would have…
He point out that as the big buys were coming in these other wallets were selling and even associated some of them the KOLS who promoted the project. Ok this is correct but more of a false alarm in my book. The KOLs get paid tokens to promote a project (no secret here) and KOLS need to sell tokens to get paid (no secret here), implying it is more than that is where I’m not going with him. If you were a KOL who got tokens as payment would you not sell them for as much as you can? Me too.
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There are many people who were saying that the team and these forces were moving tokens to MEXC (a CEX to do the selling so that it could be hidden). I really don’t buy this either as almost 40% of the volume was on Raydium LP and MEXC was just one of many CEXs that all saw normal 24 hr hour volume. So, this is not really adding up. (see pic)
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Remember Gotbit (a BIG Market Maker) is managing the liquidity on the DEXs and CEXs and I’m sure they are very aware of an attempt to arbitrage DEX to CEX listings, and I checked many times, and the price was always in sync.
So what do I think…
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There was no rug. Project is still alive (for today).
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I think this was bad idea to tell when the buy would happen, I think lots of arbitrage bots ate this alive on Solana.
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The massive 30K+ holders all lost a lot of faith in project, and many holders capitulated (sold).
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The project still has $267K LP on Radium which is not bad for 5M MC project.
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I DCA in at 6M and I’m still holding 5.5M (disclosure: If I lose here I will break even on my previous gains here, so I’m playing with house money)
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