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Crypto Market Overview
Last week, the cryptocurrency market showed signs of a good recovery, staying within the support levels determined by the Fibonacci sequence. However, it succumbed to intense global selling pressure, which began in the Japanese market, and fell to previously surpassed levels.
Currently, we observe a moderate recovery in the traditional market. This raises the question: what is the future of Bitcoin? Once again, we turn to technical analysis to adjust our risk, even though fundamentals suggest a continued increase in global liquidity.
Fundamental News
Mysterious Sales by Jump Crypto
Jump Crypto, a trading company, is currently under investigation by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Recently, the company has made significant sales of Ethereum and other crypto assets, contributing significantly to the market declines observed last week.
Trump's Decreasing Victory Probability Influencing Crypto Prices?
Our research team believes there is indeed an impact, although it is modest compared to the benefits brought by the exposure from the candidate to Bitcoin and other crypto assets. The main effect of his influence is not on the short-term price but rather on long-term adoption.
This phenomenon attracts new investors who begin to understand the importance and role of crypto assets in the new financial era. Additionally, understanding how Bitcoin works and the trend of liquidity maintained by central banks only reinforces the bullish perspective for the asset.
Also, see on Google Trends the positive trend in searches about Bitcoin.
Sentiment Analysis
Sentiment analysis is crucial for understanding people's emotions and opinions, allowing companies and organizations to adjust their communication strategies and products according to public preferences.
Dominance
Bitcoin's dominance has remained above the critical point of 56.3% for another week, driven by the asset's price drop and reinforcing its position as the safest asset during periods of volatility. DOMINANCE Chart
The top of the current range is at 57.21%, which could be a good indicator to reallocate some capital to altcoins. A break below 56.2% also suggests a similar opportunity but with an increased risk of additional declines, especially if Bitcoin is not in a consolidation zone.
Fear and Greed
The Fear and Greed Index is reaching crucial points, which can be seen as healthy for believing in a possible local bottom. This reading at 17 was not even seen when FTX Collapsed!
On-Chain, Futures, and Options Analysis
- LSR (Long-Short Ratio): The ratio between investors in long and short positions is around 1.6, indicating a neutral moment.
- Open Interest: Open contracts are recovering after a drop, with a median potential to maintain a neutral LSR.
- Retail CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta): The accumulated market orders from retail over the week are improving, with a neutral-bullish reading.
- Institutional CVD: The accumulated market orders from large players, which previously accelerated the decline, are now positioned neutrally. Show Less