I love to short STEPN ($GMT), so I get a lot of advertising for Fight Out ($FGHT) which is probably their biggest competitor that just launched. They launched with a $170M fully diluted market cap on XT and a few other exchanges. If it's anything like $GMT, it will be a bloodbath as soon as the whales start selling after massive gains unless they learned something from the failure of GMT. Let's look at specifics just in case.
Tokenomics: early buyers during the pre-sale have unvested tokens ready to sell anytime they want... that's ideal for a rug pull... 23.5% of the total supply is already in the hands of holders without vesting. 10% of the supply is kept for liquidities on exchanges. They raised $6,220,989.3 during the pre-sale phase. It is unclear how much of that is dedicated for liquidities to act as the "bank", but according to their whitepaper they are dedicated nearly all the money of the pre-sale for development, marketing, and Venue Acquisition & Refurbishment. This means, if investors decide to sell tokens, the "bank" is nearly empty already, so the price would drop like a rock. Instead of using vesting to limit sell volume, they opted to give bonus tokens to investors that automatically stake their tokens for up to 36 months. So, they are giving extra money but where is that extra money coming from??? From thin air basically, it's probably amongst the worst tokenomics I've seen overall. Adoption will need to be extreme to counteract selling volume, the moment the price start to plateau, I suspect massive selling volume and 95%+ loss of value. Meanwhile, since the liquidities is likely to be extremely small, the price will go up quick if there is any excess buying volume compared to selling volume, so not impossible for people to get 10,000% ROI within a few months if the FOMO is there. We do have a recession coming though, so I'd expect things to end up badly.
You can earn $REPS by working out, not exactly sure how that is accomplished to prevent cheaters. Then they say you can fight with other community member in some sort of game. You have to spend $REPS to upgrade your avatar to compete and earn more. None of these things bode well, as whales can earn more, it's a pay-to-win, and cheating to earn extra REPS for upgrade. Play-to-Earn games cannot be sustainable unless a portion of the gamers spend more than they earn, it has to be a balance economy, and if all gamers only play in order to earn more than they spend, this mean economy collapse as soon as market adoption run out. Ponzinomics at it's best.
There is nothing here to make me want to invest in this project. Seriously, $6.2M of pre-sale (most of it is not available in the liquidities for sellers) turns into a market cap of $170M. It takes only a tiny fraction of early investors to sell their gains to cause 10%+ price decline that will cause a panic. If Silicon Valley Bank can collapse within a week, what does a project without a treasury can cover $170M of accumulated value for holders? The financial incentive if the price grows will be massive for whales to sell before other investors start selling. Show Less