With the Treasury General Account refill almost done, ‘up only can resume’: Arthur Hayes

The U.S. Treasury’s refilling of its Treasury General Account (TGA) to a target of $850 billion has drained liquidity from financial markets, contributing to a stall in crypto and stock markets, with Bitcoin dropping to ~$113,500 and the Nasdaq falling 1.4%. This process, described by former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes as a “liquidity drain,” pulls cash out of the system as the Treasury issues new debt. With the TGA refill nearly complete, liquidity is expected to return, potentially fueling a market rally. The Federal Reserve’s recent rate cut to 4.00%-4.25% in 2025, with more expected, further supports a shift toward growth, favoring risk assets like crypto and stocks. Additionally, $7.5 trillion in money market funds signals significant capital ready to flow into markets, setting the stage for an “up only” trajectory as liquidity constraints ease. Show Less