Toncoin (TON) experienced a significant drop in value, losing over 25% following the arrest of Telegram founder Pavel Durov on August 25. The cryptocurrency fell to a low of $4.45 on September 6 but rebounded by 15% to above $5.15 by September 9. Despite this recovery, technical indicators suggest that Toncoin may continue its downward trend.
Toncoin's recent price movements are part of an inverse cup-and-handle pattern, a bearish continuation pattern. This pattern typically resolves when the price breaks below the neckline support and falls by the maximum distance between the cup's peak and neckline. On September 3, the TON/USDT pair entered the breakdown stage after slipping below its neckline support of around $5. A week later, its price was testing the same neckline as resistance. If the price fails to move back above the neckline, it confirms that the previous support has turned into resistance, signaling that sellers are still in control. In this scenario, Toncoin's downside target could be around $3.60, approximately 30% lower than current levels.
The bearish outlook for Toncoin has been exacerbated by its association with Telegram and Durov, especially amid a global crackdown on the messaging app. South Korea is investigating Telegram for facilitating deepfake crimes, while India, Telegram's largest market with over 100 million users, initiated a probe shortly after Durov's arrest. Indonesia is considering blocking the platform due to inadequate content moderation, and the European Union is reportedly investigating Telegram for allegedly providing false user data. These legal challenges could continue to negatively impact Toncoin's price as investors anticipate further market instability.
Despite the negative sentiment, Toncoin whales appear unfazed. Data from Santiment shows an increase in the holdings of Toncoin's richest investors—those with a balance of 10 million to 100 million tokens—following Durov's arrest. Additionally, the total value locked (TVL) across the Toncoin ecosystem has increased during the September price decline, aided by the launch of gaming and memecoin projects like DOGS on its network. This ongoing development within the Toncoin ecosystem could help counterbalance the current headwinds in the longer term. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. Show Less
